Chicago Crime

Weekly Time-Series Forecast

This is a crime rate forecaster for the City of Chicago. It predicts overall weekly occurrence rates and maps them out to their expected distribution across city neighborhood and time grouping (8-hour intervals).

It uses a SARIMA time-series forecast, detailed here, trained on data obtained from Chicago's Data Portal. Evaluation in training resulted in an accuracy of 94.2%, with a mean error per location-time matrix element of 0.2.

Data, model, and visualizations are updated through an automated system, lightly detailed in a post here.

This will be updated every Sunday.

            Or view a larger version of the Forecast.


            Or view a larger version of the Prediction Matrix.